Friday, February 01, 2019

Essays on Policymaking: Rationality and Superstition

It is widely regarded that superstition, an excessively credulous belief in and reverence for the supernatural (OED, 1*), is bad, especially when alternatives exist. However, superstition in the society is not diminishing despite this widespread knowledge. On the contrary, education and scientific knowledge, which are the biggest opposition to superstitious beliefs, have had minimal effect in eradicating superstition in the society. In this short write-up I explore possible reasons for such a trend without being judgmental about correctness or benefits of superstitious beliefs themselves.

Let's begin by looking at a world without superstition. When we take away the special meaning we attribute to our world, via traditions, rituals, and superstitions, we are left with a scientifically amenable world but one which is dry and inconsiderate -- a completely rational universe. In a rational universe, a human is negligible and purposeless.

Hope
 
However, no human would be satisfied in such a world. Each one of us wants there to be more -- a God, a watchful eye, a spiritual being who connects the dots and ensures fair play. In short, each of us wishes for something magical beyond the rational universe. It is with the hope of something magical that we engage in superstitious behaviour. And once we start start to entertain unexplainable magic, we are down a slippery slope -- one where we have no choice but to entertain more magic, thereby increasing and reinforcing our superstitious behaviour.

Especially vulnerable are those who are going through hard times. These would like to cling-on to the smallest possibility of upliftment. They would rather take a chance on magic than face a cruel rational world -- to be fair, not just them but all of us would make the same choice.

But why would rational people want to even entertain the notion of unexplainable magic? One could not have summarised the answer better than late Prof. Marvin Minsky who speculated that we do this in an attempt to fill a void from our childhood when we had a God-like figure -- a parent, caretaker, or a nurse. The need is so strong that it causes us to see patterns where none exist and attribute these pseudo-patterns to unexplainable or divine magic.

Hence, in summary, hope sets up the stage in our mind. And once we start believing in one irrationality, we are led to believe in many.

Complexity

Let's consider a person who has managed to avoid the pitfalls of hope. Is he immune to irrational and superstitious behaviour? Unfortunately, the enormous complexity of the world eventually causes even the most steadfast to submit.

I would like to believe that we evolved irrationality -- in the form of emotions -- in order to tackle the overwhelming complexity of the world around us. Emotions are very useful in situations where "no decision" is far worse than "a decision." It's a way we humans navigate insurmountable and incalculable complexity.

Even things we take for granted -- relationships (complex interactions amongst independent entities), life (environmental interaction, procreation, etc.) -- even the trivial ones -- recognizing faces, predicting movement -- are so complex that our current conceptual tools fall short in a bid to understand them. Global warming and weather prediction have been controversial mainly because of the complexity involved.

Hence, in summary, even the most rational amongst us are eventually overwhelmed by the complexity of nature. They have no choice but to turn to irrationality in order to make decisions. And once they start embracing irrationality, they're down the slippery slope again.

THIS BRINGS us to two important realizations: First, that it might not be possible to eradicate superstitions and irrational behaviours after all! And second, that even if we do so, we might not like living in such a rational world!

So, instead of focusing on eliminating superstitions completely, we must rather focus on removing only those that are detrimental to our current values -- those that deny us a dignified life. Are superstition and irrationality on a diminishing trend? I don't know. But I'd wager that they will never go away. They're a part of being a human. It might be better to evaluate our current beliefs and practices and make tiny corrections than aiming for a complete overhaul.

ARK

 (1*) OED: Oxford English Dictionary.

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